Shane Kim is confident and not afraid to speak his mind. We all know this because the guy loves to talk about the 360 and Microsoft Games Studio. He also tends to give out great quotes and sound bites. Reading an interview with Mr. Kim recently one of these quotes caught my eye and I just had to throw my 2 cents in about it.

"In no way would I say that Halo, or what we know of Halo today, is the peak of what’s possible. Far from it. It’s another benchmark, another milestone to exceed in the future.”

There's no doubt that Mr. Kim has a lot of confidence in his company and developers. It is also no secret that Microsoft has quite a few excellent game studios under it's umbrella. What is missing though, is just how Microsoft can top the biggest franchise - and the reason they're in the black - it's had? Ever.

“But if you look at the initial success of Grand Theft Auto IV on Xbox 360, that’s been super, and we have exclusive [DLC] content coming too. Gears of War 2 is going to be huge, Fable 2 is going to be huge."

I have no doubt that GTA IV and all the other games coming out in the next few months will be impressive for the 360, where my doubts lie is in the success of these titles compared to Halo 3. Collectively, the Halo franchise has sold more than 20 million copies and counting. Looking at the upcoming line-up, I don't see the possibility of any of those titles achieving that kind of success.

I know I'm just the average gamer, but I don't see the possibility of sales number like those seen for the Halo titles ever happening for the 360 again. I know that Gears Of War 2 and Too Human will be big titles as well as the eventual Mass Effect 2, but there's nothing coming that has the immediate pull of a Halo title. Even with Halo Wars coming out sometime in the future, I don't think the old Halo magic will be there. Mr. Kim says it himself here:

“So I don’t know. I believe that we’re going to have just as big of a year in terms of content on Xbox 360. Maybe we don’t have a particular exclusive that’s as big as Halo 3, but I do think that Gears 2 and Fable 2 will be really big hits.”

Big hits? Sure. Bigger than Halo? Not a chance. I think what I'm getting around to here is that the possibility exists that the 360 has already peaked. Hardware sales are slowing in North America and virtually nonexistent in Japan. Rumor is now that the Xbox has another price cut coming or the possible announcement of a new hardware configuration out of E3. Either way, expect sales to increase in the short term. Long term, though? The Wii will own hardware sales, and with Sony bringing out it's big guns in late 08 and early 09 expect to see the 360's attach rate drop from that magic 7.7 number that they are touting today.

This is by no means the end of the 360. There are still several years to go in the life cycle for this Microsoft console. Just don't expect it to last in the marketplace as long as Sony's machine. On the good side, the 360 will definitely outlive the Wii.

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The Aftermath

Well, holy crap. That was a pain in the ass. Sorry to cuss like this, I just feel the need to release my frustration some how. Cussing just seemed like a good way to do it. It's been a long time coming, but I'm finally settled into my new place. Even though I still have a lot of unpacking to do, the most important things are done. The bed is together, the TV and PS3 are set up, and (of course) the internet is set-up. Yes this is my first time really going on-line in weeks. Weeks people!

How did I stay sane? I have two things to thank for anchoring me to reality, my PS3 and PSP. I'm really impressed by the capabilities of both machines. I've been pretty much playing my PSP everyday. Well, I had to take Mother's Day off. Had to treat the wife. Other then that, a few minutes to a couple of hours a day were devoted to my black beauties. Crisis Core is a great game (Adam Sessler is still the man, even if he is wrong about it) and I've even played a bit of Lost Planet, pretty fun game, too. One thing I have been doing more though is the video aspect of both machines.

I'm pretty excited about the future of the Blu-Ray disc. Every week there are more and more great movies being released for the format. It is kinda depressing seeing the almost non-existent HD-DVD section these days, but like a car accident, I can't help but look. The store I frequent has a smaller selection of HD-DVDs then they have for UMD. If that isn't the end, what is? I know we'll be seeing the format around for at least a few more months, after that we'll only be seeing them in history books and yard sales. Maybe not history books, but probably video and gaming magazines and web sites doing a retrospective.

Spending almost all of the day with two other people (family members at that) in one very small room is stressful to say the least. Part of that kept us from tearing out each others throats was compromising about what to do each night. Due to a generous gesture on my part, I limited my PS3 use to once every few days. We ended watching a lot of movies, seeing quite a few good ones at that. For those of you that haven't yet, watch The Mist. The ending is perfectly Steven King. I still have the Blu-Ray version of The Rock to see, maybe tonight is the night. That is if I can pry myself away from The 4400. We did also end up getting out of the place once or twice. A couple of nights ago my daughter and I went to see Iron Man. All I'll say is, if you like action movies with a bit of humor and heart, then you have to see this movie.

Time to go, I've got the internet to catch up on.
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There is one thing I hate to do above all others. One thing that just turns my ordinary life completely upside down. One thing that I would rather get a root canal than have to do. Moving. I've already done it twice in two years, this makes number 3. With the job I have I tend to move around at an irregular interval. I was at this place for 10 months, the previous for 13, and before that for 4 years. With this move I'm hoping to regain the former stability that I had. Here's hoping for the best.

As a gamer, moving completely blows too, more so this time. I have to be out of my current residence by the 17th, but my new employer provided residence won't be ready for possibly 2 weeks after that. Even after that it'll probably take a couple of days to activate the internet for the new place. When I say new, I mean that the place has just been built and we'll be the first residents. In the meantime, that means that my family and I will have to live out of a hotel. That is going to suck. Here in our current apartment, everyone has a place they could hang out in. My wife has her office/art room, my daughter has her bedroom, and I generally get the run of the living room (with the TV and PS3). Living out of a hotel is going to put all that out of whack. I don't know what the temp place is going to be like, but if it's anything like every other hotel I've been in (usually the one room affair with two beds), I'm screwed.

See, my wife really isn't into gaming. She does play games every now and then. Mostly what she plays are flash games on her computer. I've only got her to play one game on the PS3, and that was flOw. The only reason she played that was because it was so different from the rest of what I have. I only hope that there is a desk in the hotel room, because if that's the case I'll be able to hook up her computer and maybe, just maybe, be able to get some use out of my console. Hell yes I'm taking it with me. I know that the movers are professionals and all, but I will never trust them with my very expensive electronics.

I could possibly be in luck though. My wife has shown an interest in Assassin's Creed, based on what she's read of it online. Maybe I can entice her into playing a bit of it. I have no problem watching her play the game and have fun. Another possibility is the fact that I only have one controller, but with the Dual Shock 3 having just released I can pick one up and talk her into playing a little multiplayer with me. Well, maybe not. On the positive side, at least with my PS3 I'll have a DVD and Blu-ray player with me. Movies for the win.

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April 1st. As a gamer, this is the only day I dread all year long, well, other than my anniversary (I tend to lose track of the days and miss it, rush to buy a crappy gift, and have to put up with the results of my forgetting for months, but that's another story). It is this one day that all my fanboy hopes get raised, then hopelessly crushed as I learn the truth. I'm not really gullible, I'm just a gaming fan, like you.

See, April first is the day that all the game companies and media decide to taunt us gamers. These "jokes" tend to take the shape of your favorite childhood memory re-imagined for today just so you can get your hopes up. Of course, it's all fake, so on the first day of April expect to disbelieve all you read or see. Take this trailer from IGN, you know the one I'm talking about. Yes, I'm referring to the Legend of Zelda movie trailer. The thing about that damn trailer was that it looked pretty decent. Sure, it was obviously fake and had poor quality graphics, but it still sounds more interesting than a Halo movie. That one was just evil. Pure evil.

While a lot of sites had similar gut wrenching articles and videos similar to the Zelda movie trailer, I found some others that really got into the spirit of the day (and not in an evil, heart breaking way like IGN). Most sites did have a fake story or two like the unmentionable one above, but a couple of others went all out. Both Gamespot and Destructoid got a little more involved in honor of the day.

Gamespot's site remained identical to its regular format, but every story on the page was a fake. From the Rock Band PSP story to the Q & A with David Jaffe and even one about a preview of Half Life: Episode 3 with major spoilers. My favorite thing on the site though has to be the very civilized User Soapbox section. That was obviously a fraud. Since when are Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo fans that cordial to each other? I did happen to like the top 10 list at the bottom and the poll that gave away the joke. I wonder what the results were.

Now Destructoid went through some major revisions for the day. On April 1st, 2008 Foxtoid.com was born, and lasted for exactly one day. I thought overall that their effort was really well done and pretty funny to boot. I loved the videogame terrorists on the loose video. I'll never look at a certain iconic character the same way again. The Foxtoid site is history, but the stories are still there. Here's the first story that was posted for the day. I'd describe it, but I don't want to spoil the satire.

Those sites are all well and good, but my absolute favorite gag of the day has to be from Blizzard. Yes, even those respectable people at Blizzard decided to get into the fun. First up was an announcement and trailer for an upcoming game...for the Atari 2600, and that's all I'll say about that. They also had an addition to their latest expansion, Wrath of the Lich King. This new feature is the inclusion of a new class. A bard class to be exact. Now what makes this bard different from all others is the ability to play an axe (axe as in guitar not forestry equipment) to defeat your enemies. I could actually see this type of thing being possible and a really successful addition to WoW, but it'll never happen. Just keep dreaming people, and get some sun.

With the exception of a couple of articles that were just plain mean to my fanboy tendencies, the day was a pretty good success. I think next year (if I'm still writing this darn thing) maybe I'll join in the fun. I can take a joke, really. Wait, I do have a late joke for this year though, and here it is...

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I don't know why. I know I probably should. I know that they want me to. I know everyone else is doing it, so why not me? No, I'm not talking about drugs, alcohol, or something else not so good for me. I'm talking about buying into all the hype for these high profile games coming out. I know millions have been spent on marketing, that special editions are in the works, that limited edition consoles are out there, but I just couldn't care less (well, maybe I could but I doubt it). Grand Theft Auto IV and Metal Gear Solid 4 hold no interest for me. Why? Because I've played the progenitors of both series and found them...meh.

I remember my first forays into gaming. In the late 70's to early 90's, the arcade was the best place to hang out and have good, clean fun. I would always bum a couple of bucks from Dad, then when I ran out of money, hit up Mom. The games of those days were pretty simplistic both visually and with depth of story. You had your shooters, maze games, and the occasional racing title. It was new and I loved it, but then I met Pong.

Console gaming started getting my interest in the early 80's. I remember going into KB Toys and looking at all the Atari, ColecoVision, and Intellivision games. There were a lot of arcade ports in those days, but as the years went by, console games changed. Stories were introduced, simplistic at first, then increasingly involved. Mario and Zelda evolved into the likes of Metal Gear and Final Fantasy. The days of the simple arcade games were numbered, it was just that nobody knew it yet.

Games eventually received better visuals with more control options and more complex story lines to compliment them. As time went by games began getting movie sized budgets and required large teams to make. The days of the lone programmer (although still possible, even in the era of multi-million dollar productions) were slowly disappearing. What resulted out of this boom of increased budgets was a need for the games to sell even more to turn a profit. Enter the birth of the hype machine.

Even in the early days, marketing was having a dramatic effect on the sales of games. I still remember an ad I saw at a drive-in for Dig-Dug. I don't remember the ad showing any actual game footage, but then again, what was there to see? Marketing would also evolve with gaming, from the early attempts at print and TV ads to the million dollar promotions of today. The first modern promotion that caught my attention was the Final Fantasy VII TV ads. Those ads were a sight to behold. Never before had I seen visuals so intriguing for a game. The hype worked for me. That was the reason I bought a PlayStation and my first game.

Unfortunately, there have been too many games in the vein of Final Fantasy VII turned out to be great, but with the many, many ads after that, I became a little more wary. Hype can help, but it can definitely can be a double edged sword, just John Romero. Oh, and are you his bitch yet? No? According to Ion Storm, you should be. Daikatana was the result of hype without a quality game to back it, and sales suffered as a result. Daikatana and too few in the realm of FF VII. That is why I don't believe the ads. I'm sure both MGS 4 and GTA IV will be huge sellers, but the hype is definitely a turn-off for me.

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Part 4

Finishing up my entirely too long series of posts on the history of gaming we arrive at the last generation. This generation, as have previous ones, had a significant impact during their time and will continue to have lasting effects for the future of console gaming. The true effects of these innovations may not be seen for years to come, but expect to see new and impressive ideas continue to arrive in this and the future generations.

This brings us to the current and seventh generation (2004-). This generation is marked by interesting changes to every console. As console manufacturing and competition became more intense, the field dropped down to 3 combatants. First out the gate was Microsoft with the Xbox 360. While adding more advanced hardware to it's console, the true reason for The 360's success has to lie with one of it's previous innovations. Live has proven to be king of online console gaming and has become the de facto standard for the industry. A standard that Sony, and to a much lesser extent, Nintendo have scrambled to emulate.

Both the Wii and the PlayStation 3 were released about a year after the 360 to widely different degrees of success. The PlayStation 3 was next out the gate, with a couple of features hidden up it's sleeve. The first was the inclusion of Blu-ray support for gaming and movies. Another was the inclusion of a consumer swappable harddrive, to compete with the 360's more expensive proprietary model. Sales of the PS3 were initially promising, but due to the consoles high price, soon began to slip. The next generation Nintendo console, the Wii, was released two days later. When announced, this console wasn't given much of a chance to succeed. They had an unusual and untested control scheme and a plan to target the casual market. The Wii immediately became a hit. With the novel controls and a low price (released at half the cost of the PS3 and $50 less then the 360 Core, $150 less then the 360 Premium). In the short term, Nintendo's gamble has paid off. In the long term, it remains to be seen if the Wii can continue to fend of the 360 and the PS3.

The handhelds also continued to change. The first release was the Nintendo DS in late 2004. The DS was similar in look to the previous SP model with one large exception. The clamshell design was similar, but the inclusion of a touch screen for input on the lower half was a major innovation. This touchscreen was activated by using a stylus, not unlike one found with PDAs. The DS would see a revision in mid 2006 known as the DS Lite. While the Lite has the same overall internal hardware as the original DS it did include brighter screen, extended battery life, and as the name suggests, smaller size and lighter weight. A few months after the original DS was released, Nintendo saw it's first serious handheld competitor in over 15 years.

Sony in early 2005 released a handheld console of their own, called the PlayStation portable. This is the first handheld system that has truly given Nintendo a run for their money. To compete with the DS, Sony included Wi-Fi connectivity to allow connections to other PSPs (something the DS can do) and internet browsing (something the DS can't do), an optical disc format, more powerful hardware (to provide near PS2 quality graphics), and the ability for firmware updates. Initial sales of Sony's new console were very strong, but due to a much higher price than the DS ($100 more) and the lack of a games library hurt PSP sales after the shortly after the launch. Recently the PSP underwent a DS style update by releasing a Slim and Lite model late last year. This redesign was not a significant change, but helped to reduce size, weight, improved loading times, and added the ability to output to a TV. Also, significant firmware updates improved the hardware's functionality and it's PS3 interactivity. Sales of the PSP are far behind sales of the DS, but recent numbers have shown a slowly shrinking gap in this regard.

As you can see, innovation has happened, to varying degrees of success, in every console in every generation. Sometimes that innovation hasn't been a hit or helped to see a console succeed. Sometimes it helps a console become a market leader. It's hard to tell what the future will bring, but based on what we've seen of the past, expect something innovative.

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